Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Mortality Gap widening since 2009

The Closing the Gap Report 2020 was released the week before last by the Australian Prime Minister. He frankly admitted ‘The final target — closing the gap in life expectancy within a generation — is not on track to be met by 2031’. Then he went on ‘We may not be on track to fully close the life expectancy gap in a generation – always an ambitious target – but mortality rates have improved by almost 10 per cent. This is mostly because we’ve made progress in tackling the leading cause of death: the big circulatory diseases like heart disease and stroke. This is progress.’ In this piece, Richard Madden and John Gilroy of the University of Sydney analyse the implications of this report and the statements made.

The Closing the Gap Report 2020 was released the week before last by the Prime Minister. He frankly admitted ‘The final target — closing the gap in life expectancy within a generation — is not on track to be met by 2031’. Then he went on ‘We may not be on track to fully close the life expectancy gap in a generation – always an ambitious target – but mortality rates have improved by almost 10 per cent. This is mostly because we’ve made progress in tackling the leading cause of death: the big circulatory diseases like heart disease and stroke. This is progress.’

In claiming progress, he was using the Closing the Gap Report 2020 which he tabled in Parliament. That Report states as a Key Point at the beginning of the Life Expectancy chapter: ‘Over the period 2006 to 2018, there was an improvement of almost 10 per cent in Indigenous age-standardised mortality rates. However, non-Indigenous mortality rates improved at a similar rate, so the gap has not narrowed’.

To emphasise the robustness of this 10 per cent improvement, a footnote states ‘The trend in age-standardised mortality rates was statistically significant. References to per cent change in this chapter are derived through linear regression analysis and tested at the 5 per cent level of significance.’

These statements may be true but are misleading. The chapter’s Figure 7.3 below shows the mortality rates year by year. All the improvement is up to 2009, and from then there is no further improvement.

The Report’s authors have chosen a starting point for their regression as 2006, the reference point for Closing the Gap indicators. But the choice builds in the error. If the regression started in 2009, the result would be no improvement.

The Figure also clearly shows the Mortality gap widening from 2009.

It is unfortunate that the Report, and the public reporting in the news media, does not frankly recognise the lack of improvement in Indigenous mortality since 2009.